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# Bayesian model selection and statistical modeling 
# Chapman & Hall/CRC Taylor and Francis Group 
#
# Chapter1: Section1.1
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# Analysis of Nikkei 225 index
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# Author : Tomohiro Ando
#
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# Read Nikkei225 data 

x <- scan("Nikkei225-index.txt")


# Time-series plot
plot(x,xlab="",ylab="The daily returns of Nikkei 225 index",type="n")
lines(x,lwd=2)


# parameter estimates

m <- mean(x)
s <- sd(x)


# Histgram plot and fitted normal density

r <- hist(x,br=seq(min(x),max(x),len=40),probability=T,xlab="",main="",ylim=c(0,0.5))
d <- dnorm(x,m,sqrt(s))
lines(x,d,col=1,lwd=2,lty=2)